Tag Archives: watches

The World of Wristwatches where do we go now?

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Whilst we all knew that the market for luxury watches could not continue after the booming nature of 2020-2022, scalping was rife, and speculators were buying up watches as business assets and in turn driving up the price of average watches such as Rolex Submariners, Datejusts and GMTs.

Let’s not be coy though, the vast majority of Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Phillipe watches will still be a long way from being a ‘spur of the moment decision’ – one cannot simply pop in to one of these brands boutiques and expect to walk out with a shiny box. There has been good news, however for those wanting to purchase one of these ‘grail watches’ in that the availability that is reducing those prices is actually meaning more clients are finally getting those watches that they have been waiting for. The most up to date figures are showing that 1.6 million Swiss watches are being exported every month this year so far, which is a huge number compared to even six months ago.

89 of Rolex’s current models, or pretty much 80% of their catalogue still trade at above retail price meaning that anyone is still insured for the figures that they either bought for, or worse what they think they could buy a replacement for.

Patek Phillipe has always been a strange entity in this area as a significant amount of their watches have never actually had a strong performance on the secondary market – the complications models for example have never had the huge presence that the Nautilus, or Aquanaut did, and for the most part still have. That being so Patek Phillipe still have 43 watches sitting above retail, which represents 48% of the total models they currently sell, which if anything is a bigger indicator than the Rolex figures. Audemars Piguet were, and still are to many collectors the ‘definitive’ boom watch, and despite the recent value changes have 34 watches above retail, coming in at a whopping 71% – again let’s not forget that AP still sell some stunning dress watches, that despite complications and amazing craftmanship – drop like a stone on the secondary market.

From these figures, it is clear that the market still desires certain models, and the availability of them (or lack thereof) has given the market such a huge boost over the last few years, that it’s still going to be difficult to purchase these watches from retailers for quite a while yet, and as we all know outside of the handbag market (see my other articles) the luxury watch market can dictate who buys their wares, when they buy them, and where they are purchased.

So, what happens now? For the last three years the market has been allowed to release watches that instantly have sold out, or instantly on back order – which to be honest in some situations, have not been the most inspired of choices, with very slight variations on a theme – but instantly worth at least a 25% uplift on the retail price, just because of the desire to own anything by a specific brand.

Whilst nobody can predict the future, I would say that more watches will be sold as a result of the drop in prices, and more customers will be happy to spend the kind of money that one might seem more reasonable for a luxury watch – without the premiums that we have been used to, and even become accepting of.

What we have seen in the last few months is a great array of further interesting models, not least the latest ‘disruptive’ model from Swatch X Blancpain.

When the model was mooted, and then launched, I for one was flabbergasted that a serious heritage brand like Blancpain would even consider such a collaboration – especially after the recent MoonSwatch, but after much consideration, and in fact purchasing one of them I can see where the sense comes from – it has raised the profile of the brand and where many people had not even known Blancpain (including the majority of purchasers) now they can legitimately long for one of their normal range, with some experience of the marque.

What other collaborations will arrive – we can only imagine, but I am fairly sure Swatch can’t be the only player in this game for too long, and other brands will be looking at this fairly exclusive market contemplating the six figure sales that could ensue…..

Watches Review 2022

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Well, what a year it has been in the watch world – from the Patek Phillipe Nautilus almost becoming a quarter of a million-pound stainless steel watch…. to thousands of people all around the planet fighting for a £200 Swatch, there couldn’t have been more ups and downs, even if you were writing from Downing Street.

2022 started as 2021 finished, with soaring prices for the most unavailable watches on the market; the Nautilus, Hulk, Royal Oak, Daytona, Aquanaut and many others, all trading at, so far, above their recommended retail price, that it almost became laughable. The secondary market was booming and I, personally was giving valuations on some watches on a monthly basis, due to the fluctuations we were experiencing at the time.

When the market changed, in April/May of 2022 we knew that prices were going to drop – and to be honest, I anticipated a heavier drop than we saw, with some in demand watches still trading at three times their original price in December. Hopefully collectors who bought in the last 2 years are still looking at long term investment pieces.

The Omega Speedmaster has long been regarded as one of the ‘go to’ pieces to have in any major watch arsenal. Its rugged good looks, sensible size, and moon landing history have given it more than half a century of desirability, and last year it was even more desirable than ever – but not in a way that die-hard mechanical watch fans would have anticipated….

The ‘Moonswatch’ was released in 2022, with possibly the biggest marketing push that anyone has seen for a watch, blending the aesthetics of a traditional Omega Moonwatch, and the inexpensive practicality and sense of fun that Swatch have done peerlessly for many decades. The result caused uproar around the planet with near riots in London and Paris, and police being called to many other cities. The most desirable watch on the market for the year was actually a £220 plastic quartz watch, and with nowhere near enough examples, the secondary market went wild with certain examples reaching 10 times their retail value, with people camping out to buy one and then unashamedly selling them the next day on internet auction sites.

Thankfully, this market has calmed a little, with Swatch assuring potential customers that this is not a limited release and eventually there will be enough to go around. But as I write this in January 2023, it is still very difficult to get hold of an example, with some models virtually impossible.

We saw new releases from many of the major house, with Rolex continuing their theme of fancy dials and variations on classic models, such as a left handed version of the GMT Master II. Due to its green and black ceramic bezel, playfully nicknamed ‘Spirte’ or ‘Destro’, caused quite the stir when it was dropped, somewhat trading at over twice its original retail price, from £22,000 to even £30,000, its been one of last years unexpected stars – but if it has Rolex on the dial, it can never be that unexpected.

After the 5711 Nautilus was discontinued the options available to Patek Phillipe were probably immense – how could they change what has become one of the most desirable watches of the current era, if not any era? Well, they were bold! The 5811 is now 1mm bigger than the watch it replaces. I suppose the question is why would you change a winning formula and this proves that.

So, what does 2023 have instore for us?

I believe that whilst all the major brands are going to continue releasing ground-breaking watches with possibly a major offensive of movements, I think that some older watches are going to begin to fall into the modern vintage category and such classics as the much overlooked 16710 GMT Master from 1989-2007, becoming more desirable and prices increasing. There will undoubtedly be some surprises – look out for changes in the Daytona line, as this has been mooted for quite a while now.

Will prices rise or fall?

This is always going to be the question that everyone asks me, and as a valuer, it would be unprofessional to speculate. Whilst 2022 saw prices drop, they were still at the same kind of level they were 12 months ago, so that brings a distinct amount of confidence in watches as a commodity. The demand is still there and will continue to grow as people become more interested – needless to say 12 months is a long time in the watch industry!

Meet the team – Alastair Meiklejon

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Over the next couple of weeks we will be introducing you to our amazing team…

Profile

Alastair has been involved in the wristwatch and antiques industry for over 20 years as an auctioneer and valuer. He has a particularly broad knowledge with interests and passions to include the following specialities; militaria, watches, automobilia, rock and pop, posters, comic books, and musical instruments.

Over the years watches have become as much pieces of jewellery and a celebration of mechanical art, as well as timepieces, as wristwatches specialist Alastair has had the pleasure of valuing some of the world’s great collections, including Patek Phillipe, Audemars Piguet, Voutilainen, Rolex, and many other great marques’.

Membership

Alastair is a qualified, professional member of the National Association of Valuers and Auctioneers and was elected a Fellow of The Royal Society of Arts in 2017.

About

In his spare time Alastair likes nothing more than enjoying a lovely meal with a nice bottle of red with family and friends. He has, in the past attempted to be a racing driver, however these days he’s happy watching a race from the comfort of his own seat.

Spot-light

Alastair’s favourite part of valuations is hearing the stories behind the item.

Covering

Contact

[email protected]

The watch markets – Let’s talk about secs… mins, and hours

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Let’s not beat around the bush, one of the most common watches that I have to value is the now almost immortal Patek Phillipe Nautilus 5711 and again one of the most common questions (or statements) is that the value is plummeting but let’s just have a quick look at the facts here – if you bought your watch any time before Christmas of last year, it’s still probably going to have to be insured for more than you bought it for. The timeline of this watch is probably the most extreme, and well known of any of the mid pandemic boomers so let’s just have a look at the statistics;

In November of 2019, these watches were in demand and trading above their retail price, and this flexed around the £50,000 mark with occasional spikes and troughs.

Then when COVID-19 decided to appear, suddenly things started getting extreme with Patek also announcing that they would be ‘Discontinuing’ the watch and around November of 2020 12 months on, they had pretty much doubled in price to a £100,000 watch.

March of 2021 and things had just got to a stage where asking prices were up to nearly £200,000 for what is a stainless-steel sports watch, I even knew of some trading around the £180,000 for sealed examples, which in my opinion is a bit of a nonsense anyway.

Today’s market has changed and now in the summer of 2022 the 5711 has taken a retreat and is currently sitting at around the £150,000 – there are fluctuations and deals being done, so this is a fairly liberal figure so yes, it has lost some value but ultimately those prices could not carry on rising – people were at one stage tipping the Patek to be a £250,000 watch, which quite frankly would have been amazing.

In the same breath, we can also talk about the other big hitter in this market, the Audemars-Piguet Royal Oak – similar style, similar quality and similar demand. A fairly similar course of events has occurred and now a good AP Jumbo can be bought on the secondary market for £90,000 when back in those days of Zoom calls and toilet paper shortages you would be paying closer to £130,000 – still, let’s not forget that this was a £35,000 watch.

So, is the whole market in decline? Absolutely not.

Rolex are still playing the field and keeping their desirability levels at an all-time high…is this because they are slightly more ‘affordable’? possibly. Is it because they are releasing more interesting variations on their ever-expanding roster of watches? Probably.

So why is this happening? The common thought thread seems to be a mixture of the potential economic issues that may or may not be coming into play over the next year, and the other big factor is the massive decline of crypto currencies.

At one time a gold Nautilus went with a large wallet of Bitcoin and Ethereum like it did with a very noisy Lamborghini (usually on The Kings Road) whereas now you are more likely to be heading to your local Casio store.

Whichever way we look at it, the watch market will always be volatile, it’s a luxury item that is really not just a watch, but a collectible, a piece of jewellery, a statement, a piece of art…
it’s everything.

The one that got away…

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The world of watches is not only a fascinating one, but also a frustrating one. For example in 2014 had I known that the world of Rolex sports watches would have become such a lucrative market place I would have purchased their entire stock and waited for the elevated position that their most desirable watches currently occupy.

There are of course limited runs of pieces that you always would like to own, but only when as it transpires, they are all sold out and you are late to the party – this is a classic situation with the Rolex Submariner with the famous green bezel…

The year was 2009 and a Rolex Submariner was known to be one of the most desirable sports watches on the planet with… wait for it, sometimes a waiting list if the authorised dealer of your choice didn’t have the model you required, fast forward to today – you would almost be laughed out of a dealer if you asked to buy a brand new Submariner – it is that popular.

Rolex had made a bold move, they had issued the fairly conservative Submariner with a green bezel. Instantly every Rolex aficionado let it be known how appalled and disgusted they were that such a great mark could do such a thing.

So, back to that year of 2009 when I happened to be speaking to a Rolex dealer, whom shall remain nameless when I was offered the ‘Kermit’ (I don’t think Rolex nicknames were such a big thing then) for the unimaginable price of £4,800, and if I took two of them then it would come with a discounted price of £9,000.

Fast forward to this moment in time and the green bezel Submariner is one of the most desirable watches on the planet, with similar incarnations such as the ‘Starbucks’ and the ‘Hulk’ offering buyers additional variations on a theme, with secondary market figures varying from £18,000-£25,000 each.

The next incident is actually ongoing and may well change over the next year, but currently one of the hottest pieces on the secondary market is the Swatch and Omega collaboration the ‘Moonswatch’. A ‘bioceramic’ (basically plastic) quartz watch in the manner of the Omega classic moonwatch.

Announced on the internet with 48 hours’ notice, the range of watches instantly became the most sought after item from either Swatch or Omega with Swatch boutiques having to close and call in for police security after mobs started storming the little shops all around the world – the demand was so huge they had to apologise.

Within hours the watches were appearing on secondary market sites for up to £3,000 – and considering this was a £200 watch, it seemed rather sad and cynical however.

The one thing that we can be sure of though is that the watch market will be constantly reinventing itself with new and different ways to attract buyers and collectors and as long as this keeps happening, no doubt I will always be looking to make sure no more items get away!

Watches Update

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Well, if we thought that 2020 couldn’t be surpassed in the watch world – we could not have been further from the truth!
We must start (we really do) with what was without doubt the biggest drop of 2021 – the Tiffany/Patek Phillipe 5711 – 1A/018

We are all very aware that one of the most desirable watches in the Patek Phillipe arsenal is due to be retired this year and as such the last 18 months have been spent by watch aficionados talking about how the standard Patek Phillipe 5711 has risen to the ranks of a £175,000 wristwatch when compared to a few years ago – it really is astonishing.

So, when the powers that be decided a send-off to conquer all others was required – they called in the big guns, and that robin egg blue dial appeared from nowhere. 170 will be produced and available exclusively from Tiffany boutiques and one can only imagine how these may perform on the secondary market – in a recent charity auction, one of the 170 sold for a jaw dropping $6.5 million, which is simply staggering for a watch that retails at a few bucks over $52,000.

Now some people amongst you will be aware that Tiffany has recently been acquired by LVMH and this moment has clearly been defined by the 5711 – 1A/018, it even has a little nod to the recent acquisition on the engraving of the caseback – a little brash? Maybe, but I am fairly sure that most watch people won’t notice the difference and hope that the work between the two companies will continue as it has done for the last 170 years.

As far as the rest of 2021 happened – it was pretty much a continuation of 2020, with rises across the board of Patek Phillipe, Audemars Piguet, and of course… Rolex sports models.

At the start of 2021, a 116610LN could be acquired on the secondary market for just short of £10,000 now, it’s closer to £16,000. Considering back in the pre covid days of 2018, on a good day you could get one for closer to £6000 – it hasn’t been a bad investment and if you bought the green bezel model – well that’s a completely different story!

Other highlights of 2021 have included the Bremont ENG300 – Whilst the English brothers may have had to fight off some arguments about the origin of parts of their watches, this new model has what appears to be a well-researched in house movement, that really is a game changer for the UK watch industry.

The Cartier Solarbeat, is certainly a watch for the risk taker – a person that wants a classical design with one of the most forward-thinking developments of the year – a solar powered Cartier, its doesn’t sound right saying it, but could you tell the difference? At a really good price point as well, one would have to be brave to bet against it being a huge success.

Finally, what has to be my watch of the year is the Tissot PRX, starting at under £300 (yes, three hundred pounds) it is an amazing retro design with hints of the big boys, but with a price tag that makes it far more accessible to enthusiasts on a lower budget as well.

What will 2022 bring? It’s difficult to say but with watch shows being planned for throughout the year, and design teams back at their desks I am sure that there will be a few surprises ahead!

If I had £5,000 to invest what would I buy?

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£5,000 – it seems like a lot of money to be spending on a watch doesn’t it? A piece of mechanical jewellery that serves pretty much no other purpose than to look good, and make the owner proud to be wearing it… however, in the world of horological collections £5,000 is almost a starting point for many top tier watches.

The watches that I have included today represent the most popular category in the market – the gentleman’s stainless steel sports watch. If you have read my articles on the Rolex Submariner, you will be aware that even trying to look at one of these brand new is somewhat akin to trying to buy toilet roll in 2020, and unless you have the contacts, don’t even think about owning one until you have been on the waiting list for years…

We will however start with a couple of notable mentions – firstly the Ulysse Nardin Diver 8163. It’s a brilliant, strong move from a company that has always had a little bit of an identity crisis – from supplying the majority of the worlds naval forces to releasing slightly risqué watches with different images from the Kama Sutra, Ulysse Nardin have always been a choice for those who wanted something a bit different and this 42mm diver is about as accessible as they will ever get, it’s a great looking watch with a bold dial and bezel, and at £5,600 (I know I am cheating a little) I think it’s a great alternative to a modern Submariner.

Second, is the Grand Seiko Sport Automatic Spring Drive GMT which also comes in at around £5,500. This is a slightly bizarre choice as Grand Seiko occupy the position as the ‘Lexus’ of the watch world – everyone knows they probably make the best product, will work brilliantly well forever and when they need servicing, it will be at a moderate cost. So why aren’t they flying off the shelves? Because of that badge unfortunately. It’s a great shame, but wearing a £5,000 watch, with the same heritage as the digital timepiece I wore to school just doesn’t create the same desire as some of the more luxury brands we all know and love.

So – what would I buy with £5,000?
There is only one option, not only do I think that this is the best watch for the money, I also think that to a certain degree, you would be hard pushed to find a better time piece in many greater price brackets.

The Omega Seamaster – it is frankly, brilliant.

Coming in at £4,450 it’s also about a grand cheaper than my other alternatives, but never looks like a cheap watch. Omega are without doubt one of the power houses of Swiss watch design, Rolex are simply young upstarts when it comes to heritage (in fact Hans Wilsdorf launched Rolex as a cheaper alternative to Omega) and Omega can claim many of the worlds most notable horological moments including the first watch on the moon. Currently though, most people will associate the brand with James Bond, and that’s ok – what better ambassador than a secret agent whom can jump out of planes, trains and blow stuff up – all with the aid of his timepiece.

The Seamaster, in my opinion is all the watch you would ever need in this category, it’s a proper divers watch with a stunning dial, a comfortable bracelet, 300m water resistance, and a great brand heritage. There are a multitude of colours to buy them in and you can literally walk into a shop and buy one, without having to sell your soul or pay a massive premium to own one.
A great watch, at a great price point.

Licence To Spend, The True Cost of Being Bond

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Finally, this month will see the release of the much anticipated ‘No Time to Die’ – the 25th film in the James Bond series, despite a very long wait since the original release date the world is waiting to see just what Bond can offer in Daniel Craig’s last outing as 007.

It is a phenomenon that in 2021, a character such as Bond can still pull the crowds, but it’s the franchise that always wins and whatever is associated with Bond generally brings in the royalties as well. With a supposed birthday of the 11th of November 1920, he is certainly looking good for his age…

How though, has Bond changed over the years? In 1962 when ‘Dr. No’ was released, it’s doubtful that anyone could have seen just what effect the Scottish/Swiss secret agent (who was named after an expert on American birds, and one of Ian Fleming’s favourite authors) would have on films, products and computer games to name but a few.

Now, what a lot of people don’t realise is that Bond’s car was a Bentley – according to Ian Fleming – the Aston Martin came with the films, but the DB5 is now possibly the most recognisable movie car on the planet, possibly more recognisable than some of the lesser-known Bond actors (sorry, Timothy). Strangely, the most expensive example of this legend is a Bond car, but not as one might imagine. The promotional car for ‘Goldfinger’ (1964) sold a couple of years ago for close to £5,000,000 and was in remarkable condition as Mr Connery had never driven it in anger during production. To put it in context a standard DB5, minus ejector seat and oil slick jets, can be purchased for under a million.

For those with a lesser budget, my choice would always be the Alfa Romeo GTV6 driven by Roger Moore in Octopussy – obviously this was a prop car as when I owned one of these, saving the world from nuclear destruction would not have been on my agenda – just getting it to start was considered a success.

Bond’s watches are another example of how one man (and maybe a great marketing department) can change the course of a product. So, what was the first ever Bond watch on screen? It was the instantly forgettable Gruen Precision 510 (Connery’s personal watch, and worn in many other Bond outings)… but nobody cares about that and so we always talk about the Rolex Submariner 6538.

Again, the source of the watch was reputably Connery, although it has been hinted that it may have belong to production staff… with the passing of Connery, I suppose we will never get the full lowdown… what is true however is the escalating value of the 6538 along with most other vintage Rolex sports models. If you want to` be a part of the ‘Big Crown’ Rolex club, be ready to hand over close to £100,000 for a good one these days.

There are of course, again many other options for classic Bond watches, with Seiko, Breitling and most recently Omega, whom have pretty much rejuvenated a brand tanks to Pierce Brosnan, and Daniel Craig wearing some timepieces that do far, far more than tell the time.

When we look at the clothes that Bond sports, there has always been that sartorial elegance with Bond, with Daniel Craig wearing a symphony of Tom Ford attire, with accoutrements by Sunspel, Orlebar Brown and many others but, for me nothing beats Roger Moore in the Safari Suit though, capturing a moment when being a secret agent required a pair of flared trousers, and preferably with a silk cravat.

So, over the years – many things have changed with Bond from watches, to cars, and clothing manufacturers. Hopefully, ‘No Time to Die’ will be as good as we have come to expect from 007, as nobody does it better…

You have £5,000 to spend – Early Seiko Watches

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£5,000 to spend. Early Seiko Watches by James Lowe Watch & Jewellery Specialist

In 1969 Seiko introduced the world’s first quartz watch – the Seiko Quartz Astron. It was accurate to about 5 seconds per month, which was a sensational improvement on even the likes of Rolex.

Image of Seiko Quartz Astron

Seiko Quartz Astron

Yes, Seiko produced millions of watches in hundreds of designs and styles, but I would always recommend going for their early sports chronograph watches – especially the divers’ watches in ceramic and titanium.

Avoid the LCD watches, clever though they may be. If they go wrong, you are sunk. Quartz watch movements are seldom repaired to cure a malfunction – it is far easier and cheaper to fit a compatible new movement. However, thousands were thrown away due to malfunction, so a few models are becoming rare. Original paperwork and boxes are a big plus, but again, rare.

Image of Seiko Quartz Astron 50th Anniversary edition watch

Seiko Quartz Astron 50th Anniversary edition

The price range is enormous; dependent on model and type but with auction purchases beginning at about £150 and going up to several thousand, you could start a sound collection for £5000. But patience and diligence in research into the thousands of Seikos out there will pay dividends.

Review of the Watch Market October 2020

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The watch market seems to have survived amazingly well over the past six months, both on the retail and auction side. There was even an auction in Hong Kong recently selling only early Seiko watches, a brand that despite being the first to launch a quartz watch in 1969, has in the past fared pretty badly at auction with very low prices generally. However, the sale largely sold out, with several of the rarer watches fetching thousands.

An area of the market which is causing excitement currently is what is known as the Secondary Market. I do stress that it applies to an extremely limited few brands and models, and that for most watches the value still plummets as soon as they leave the shop. Patek Philippe, Rolex, and to a lesser degree Audemars Piguet, are the brands most impacted in this situation and it is only their steel sports or utility ranges rather than the precious metal and bejewelled dress watches that are affected.

Image of Patek Philippe Nautilus

Patek Philippe Nautilus

Patek produce only about 6,500 steel watches out of their total annual production of about 65,000. The waiting list for several of their steel ranges can be 18 months to 2 years, so this Secondary Market has emerged. If you were able to purchase a steel Patek Philppe Nautilus at the recommended retail price of about £31,000, keep it in its plastic factory wrap together with all original documents, you could put it on the Secondary Market and ask in excess of £70,000.

Image of a Rolex Daytona Watch

Rolex Daytona

A few Rolex and Audemars Piguet models might get you a 50% profit on RRP. Patek say that they are essentially a maker of luxury precious metal watches, not sports watches, and they will not increase production to meet the demand. But I must stress again how this market is relevant to so very few of the watches that come on to the retail market.

Image of Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore watch

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore Chronograph (re-edition-25th-anniversary)

Another by-product of this market is the emergence of some very convincing well-made fakes – or replicas as they are sometimes called. All the major brands will mark their cases and movements with reference and serial numbers so that with some diligent sleuth work you should be able to safeguard yourself against buying an expensive fake.