Whilst we all knew that the market for luxury watches could not continue after the booming nature of 2020-2022, scalping was rife, and speculators were buying up watches as business assets and in turn driving up the price of average watches such as Rolex Submariners, Datejusts and GMTs.

Let’s not be coy though, the vast majority of Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Phillipe watches will still be a long way from being a ‘spur of the moment decision’ – one cannot simply pop in to one of these brands boutiques and expect to walk out with a shiny box. There has been good news, however for those wanting to purchase one of these ‘grail watches’ in that the availability that is reducing those prices is actually meaning more clients are finally getting those watches that they have been waiting for. The most up to date figures are showing that 1.6 million Swiss watches are being exported every month this year so far, which is a huge number compared to even six months ago.

89 of Rolex’s current models, or pretty much 80% of their catalogue still trade at above retail price meaning that anyone is still insured for the figures that they either bought for, or worse what they think they could buy a replacement for.

Patek Phillipe has always been a strange entity in this area as a significant amount of their watches have never actually had a strong performance on the secondary market – the complications models for example have never had the huge presence that the Nautilus, or Aquanaut did, and for the most part still have. That being so Patek Phillipe still have 43 watches sitting above retail, which represents 48% of the total models they currently sell, which if anything is a bigger indicator than the Rolex figures. Audemars Piguet were, and still are to many collectors the ‘definitive’ boom watch, and despite the recent value changes have 34 watches above retail, coming in at a whopping 71% – again let’s not forget that AP still sell some stunning dress watches, that despite complications and amazing craftmanship – drop like a stone on the secondary market.

From these figures, it is clear that the market still desires certain models, and the availability of them (or lack thereof) has given the market such a huge boost over the last few years, that it’s still going to be difficult to purchase these watches from retailers for quite a while yet, and as we all know outside of the handbag market (see my other articles) the luxury watch market can dictate who buys their wares, when they buy them, and where they are purchased.

So, what happens now? For the last three years the market has been allowed to release watches that instantly have sold out, or instantly on back order – which to be honest in some situations, have not been the most inspired of choices, with very slight variations on a theme – but instantly worth at least a 25% uplift on the retail price, just because of the desire to own anything by a specific brand.

Whilst nobody can predict the future, I would say that more watches will be sold as a result of the drop in prices, and more customers will be happy to spend the kind of money that one might seem more reasonable for a luxury watch – without the premiums that we have been used to, and even become accepting of.

What we have seen in the last few months is a great array of further interesting models, not least the latest ‘disruptive’ model from Swatch X Blancpain.

When the model was mooted, and then launched, I for one was flabbergasted that a serious heritage brand like Blancpain would even consider such a collaboration – especially after the recent MoonSwatch, but after much consideration, and in fact purchasing one of them I can see where the sense comes from – it has raised the profile of the brand and where many people had not even known Blancpain (including the majority of purchasers) now they can legitimately long for one of their normal range, with some experience of the marque.

What other collaborations will arrive – we can only imagine, but I am fairly sure Swatch can’t be the only player in this game for too long, and other brands will be looking at this fairly exclusive market contemplating the six figure sales that could ensue…..

You can buy a perfectly reliable and accurate watch for £100 or you can buy one for £1million plus.   Of the top 10 brands, most have about 10 ranges each with about 10 models – plus the myriad of other lesser brands, so getting watch valuation prices accurate is very important.

It’s in the makers’ interest to ring the changes and bring out new models on a regular basis – no self-respecting Manchester United footballer’s wife could be seen today wearing a 2010 model Cartier watch and it’s not often a new model will sell for less than its predecessor, so a watch can quickly become underinsured.

With very, very few exceptions the second-hand value of a watch can be as little as a half or quarter of its new retail price of the current comparable model.  So from both the insured’s and the insurers’ points of view (and the watch valuer’s too!) it is very important to establish if the policy offers ‘new for old’ or ‘like for like’ cover.

There are only two UK based watch manufacturers so 99% of watches sold here are imported so are subject to currency fluctuation. Precious metal and gem stone prices are also prone to price changes – and as most of the top brand models are hand made the cost of skilled watch makers is an important factor in a watch’s retail price.

Condition can be an important factor and should be checked and commented on in a watch valuation.  Particularly in a precious metal watch with a bracelet rather than a leather strap where clasps, buckles and links can wear over time, there’s a risk of the watch falling off with consequent damage or loss.  Also, gem set watches should be checked for claw and setting wear – to source a suitable replacement stone and get it mounted by a skilled setter can be a very expensive exercise.

Watch fakes (or replicas!)

I must mention fakes – or replicas as the makers prefer to call them! 30 years ago the first Rolex fakes came on the scene and even to the untrained eye they were unconvincing, they weighed half what an original did, they often had quartz movements rather than automatic and  some even had spelling mistakes on the dial.  The 18 carat gold parts of the original watches were made of thin gold plate which could wear through in a couple of months. The new ones are very much better and can be embarrassingly convincing, however most of the better watch brands will have a numbering system, stamping an individual serial number on a watch and in some cases the model range number, so with a bit of research we can be pretty sure. Just a quick ‘trick of the trade’ note on fakes – since about 1980 all Cartier watches with roman numerals will have a secret ‘signature’ on the dial. You may need a quizzing glass or similar but look carefully at all the straight lines of the roman numerals and one of them will not be a line but is the name Cartier spelt out in tiny letters – it’s a detail very hard and expensive to replicate. Cartier change where this ‘signature’ is each year, so you can get an approximate date for the watch, also.

If the insured is in the position of having to buy a replacement for a lost or stolen watch we do recommend that for the major brands they go to an official agent.  There are many ‘on line’ sites offering very tempting discounts, but problems can occur with warranty and repair claims. Also, in the event of wishing to sell the watch, having original receipts, paperwork and boxes will add value.

We normally recommend an annual review and a revaluation every 3 years and a condition inspection every three.

Our watch valuation document will give full details of the watch, noting individual serial numbers and model references where possible, and a close-up photograph, so in the event of a claim or a ‘post loss’ identification situation.

Call us today to enquire about an appointment on 01883 722736 or email [email protected] or visit our website www.doerrvaluations.co.uk